Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are attributed to a balance of structural factors between bullish and bearish sentiments, with short-term profit-taking and the Federal Reserve's unchanged policy contributing to the current consolidation phase [1][3][6]. Price Movement - After reaching a peak of $3438.80 per ounce, gold prices have retreated below $3300, with a low of $3268.02 on July 30 and a recovery to $3295 by July 31 [1][3]. - Year-to-date, gold prices have shown a significant increase, starting from $2625 per ounce and peaking at $3500, reflecting a maximum gain of over 33% this year, although the current year-to-date increase has decreased to 25.7% [3][5]. Investment Demand - Despite the recent price volatility, global demand for gold investment remains strong, with a reported 477 tons of gold investment demand in Q2 2025, a 78% year-on-year increase [5]. - The inflow into gold ETFs reached 170 tons, with the Chinese market showing record performance, contributing 464 billion RMB (approximately $65 billion) in inflows and an increase of 61 tons in holdings [5]. Central Bank Activity - In Q2 2025, global central banks added 166 tons of gold to their reserves, indicating sustained high levels of gold purchases despite a slight slowdown in pace [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflationary pressures are expected to maintain central banks' interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market sentiment is influenced by changing expectations regarding the macroeconomic environment and monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and other central banks [4]. - Analysts suggest that gold prices are likely to maintain a strong medium to long-term support due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, although short-term price movements may remain volatile [6][7].
现货黄金再现震荡,多空博弈下后续行情如何走?
Bei Jing Shang Bao·2025-07-31 12:24