美联储最爱通胀指标意外回升！美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8% 创4个月新高

Economic Indicators - The June PCE price index in the US increased by 2.6% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised up to 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index rose by 2.8% year-on-year in June, exceeding the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February, with the previous value also revised up to 2.8% [3] Inflation Trends - Service sector inflation is accelerating, with rising costs for durable goods also noted [4] - Prices for household goods have surged due to the impact of the trade war [6] - Healthcare costs are beginning to rise [8] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Real consumer spending adjusted for inflation grew by only 0.1% in June, failing to reverse the decline from the previous month [10] - Durable goods spending has declined for three consecutive months, the longest downturn since 2021, while service spending remains low, indicating weak discretionary spending [10] - Real disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May, with weak wage growth limiting consumer spending willingness [10] - The savings rate is steady at 4.5%, reflecting household caution amid economic uncertainty [10] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma with rising core inflation raising concerns, while weak consumer and labor market conditions prompt calls for interest rate cuts [12] - The Fed has maintained interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive time, with some members advocating for a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal divisions [12] - Recent trade policies and potential tariffs proposed by former President Trump are viewed as risks that could further elevate inflation [12] Market Reactions - Following the data release, US stock index futures maintained an upward trend, while Treasury yields declined, and the dollar remained stable, indicating market caution regarding the Fed's policy direction [13] - The June PCE data has intensified policy divisions within the Fed, as core inflation remains above target while consumer and income growth show signs of weakness [13]