碳酸锂上演“过山车”行情！下游企业观望情绪浓，锂矿供需博弈加剧，还能涨吗？｜大宗风云

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market has experienced significant volatility, with prices rebounding sharply after hitting a low on June 23, but subsequently declining again by the end of July, raising concerns among regulators [2][4]. Price Fluctuations - Lithium carbonate futures prices surged to 80,520 yuan/ton on July 25, marking a cumulative increase of 37.84% since June 23, before falling to 68,282 yuan/ton by July 31 [2]. - The spot price for battery-grade lithium carbonate reached 72,950 yuan/ton by July 30, reflecting a 21% increase from the year's low [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite some lithium salt plants undergoing maintenance, overall industry production remains high, with major manufacturers maintaining stable output levels [3]. - The supply side is affected by compliance issues, particularly with Cangge Lithium Industry, which is expected to impact monthly supply by 900-1,000 tons due to regulatory non-compliance [3][8]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Market activity remains subdued as many companies adopt a cautious stance, leading to lower transaction volumes despite a slight recovery in purchasing intentions [4]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is under pressure, with downstream companies primarily executing long-term contracts and showing reluctance to engage in high-priced purchases [4]. New Energy Vehicle Market Performance - In the first half of 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 41.4% and 40.3% [5]. - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles reached 54.9% in July, indicating strong market performance, although growth rates are expected to decline in the coming months [5][6]. Regulatory and Compliance Issues - The compliance of mining licenses has become a focal point, with potential impacts on supply and market sentiment. Recent inspections in Yichun have raised concerns about the regulatory status of lithium mining operations [8][9]. - The outcome of compliance issues could significantly influence lithium prices, with expectations of a return to a supply surplus if resolved positively [9].