美国6月PCE略超预期 美联储降息时间表再添变数！

Core Insights - The June core PCE price index year-on-year recorded 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2.70% and revised from the previous value of 2.70% [1] - The overall PCE index increased by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, both higher than market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5% respectively [1] - Personal consumption expenditure price index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, bringing the year-on-year rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February [1] Inflation Data - Inflation data for June was driven by rising prices of goods, including home goods, sports equipment, and clothing, indicating that import tariffs have been partially passed on to consumers [2] - A key indicator of service sector inflation, excluding energy and housing, rose by 0.2% for the second consecutive month [3] - The June inflation data slightly exceeded expectations, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve's interest rate timeline [3] Labor Market and Consumer Spending - Initial jobless claims remained stable at 218,000, with continuing claims at 1.95 million, unchanged from the previous week [4] - Despite a stable unemployment rate, many workers report longer job search times and difficulty finding opportunities, indicating underlying weakness in the labor market [4] - The economic data reflects a tug-of-war, with inflation pressures on one side and weak consumer spending on the other, leading to a split among Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy [3]