植田和男淡化通胀风险，日元创四月来最大跌幅重返150关口

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintained its interest rates while raising inflation expectations, but the comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda were perceived as not sufficiently hawkish, leading to a significant depreciation of the yen [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - The BOJ's decision to keep interest rates unchanged was influenced by an increase in consumer inflation expectations, primarily driven by rising food prices [3][4]. - Market expectations for a rate hike have diminished, with the probability of a rate increase this year now at 66%, up from 59% prior to the US-Japan trade agreement [4]. Group 2: Currency Impact - Following the BOJ's meeting, the yen initially strengthened but then reversed course, dropping 0.4% to 150.04, marking a new low since April 2 [3][4]. - The lack of a hawkish stance from the BOJ has weakened market confidence in the likelihood of a near-term rate hike, contributing to the yen's decline [4]. Group 3: Trade Agreement Implications - The recent trade agreement between Japan and the US, which includes a 15% tariff imposed by the US, complicates the BOJ's policy-making process [5]. - Governor Ueda indicated that while the agreement reduces uncertainty regarding future tariff impacts, it does not eliminate the high level of uncertainty surrounding external trade policies [5]. Group 4: Political Stability - Domestic political instability in Japan, particularly following the ruling coalition's loss of a majority in the upper house, has raised concerns about potential increases in government spending [6]. - This political uncertainty has contributed to the yen's weakness and has led to rising yields on ultra-long-term government bonds [6].