连续五次按兵不动，美联储两票反对！鲍威尔放“鹰”？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change, amidst rare dissent among board members [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Decision - The decision to keep rates steady was supported by 9 out of 12 voting members, while two members, Waller and Bowman, opposed the decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3]. - This dissent is notable as it marks the first time since 2020 that more than one Federal Reserve official voted against the chair's decision [3]. - The Fed's statement highlighted that while the unemployment rate remains low and the job market is stable, inflation is still slightly elevated, and economic growth has slowed in the first half of the year [3]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank is monitoring the potential impact of tariffs on inflation and has not yet made a decision regarding a rate cut in September [4][5]. - Following the Fed's announcement, traders significantly reduced their expectations for a September rate cut, with the probability of maintaining rates at 58.8% and a 41.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut [6]. - The probabilities for future meetings show a cumulative 47.4% chance of a 25 basis point cut by October and a 14.6% chance of a 50 basis point cut [6][7]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Analysts noted that Powell's remarks reflected both hawkish and dovish tendencies, suggesting that the threshold for a policy shift has lowered, allowing for potential rate cuts if upcoming data is unfavorable [8]. - The market reacted positively to the hawkish signals, with the dollar index rising close to 100, although a disappointing non-farm payroll report could reverse these expectations [8].