美联储9月降息可能性急降至四成

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's expectations for a rate cut in September have significantly diminished following Chairman Powell's hawkish remarks, with the likelihood of a rate cut now around 40% for September and 80% for October [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive decision to keep rates unchanged this year [1]. - For the first time in over 30 years, two Federal Reserve governors voted against the rate decision, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [1]. - Powell indicated that it is premature to assert whether the Fed will cut rates in September, emphasizing the need for more economic data before making a decision [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Labor Market - The U.S. economy showed signs of slowing growth, with the Fed downgrading its previous assessment of "steady growth" and acknowledging increased downside risks to employment goals [2][3]. - The unemployment rate has recently dropped to 4.1%, but job growth in the private sector has significantly slowed, raising concerns about the labor market's stability [4]. - Job vacancies decreased from 7.71 million in May to 7.44 million in June, indicating a gradual cooling of the labor market [5]. Group 3: Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Fed's current stance is influenced by uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and their potential inflationary effects, with estimates suggesting tariffs could raise U.S. prices by 1.8%, equating to an average household income loss of approximately $2,400 [6]. - Powell stated that the Fed will remain flexible and closely monitor changes in tariff policies and inflation data as key factors in determining future monetary policy [6][8]. Group 4: Future Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut have shifted, with some analysts predicting that the Fed may delay rate cuts until December, while others anticipate a more aggressive approach if tariff impacts are less severe than expected [7]. - The potential for a total rate cut of 50 to 75 basis points within the year is suggested, depending on the evolution of economic conditions and tariff negotiations [7]. Group 5: Central Bank Independence - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve are rising, particularly with Powell's term nearing its end, which could lead to increased market uncertainty [8]. - Historical precedents indicate that central bank independence is crucial for maintaining price stability and market trust, especially in the face of political pressures [8].