美联储青睐通胀指标回升 消费支出几近停滞

Core Inflation and Consumer Spending - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated to a year-high in June, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8%, indicating limited progress in inflation relief over the past year [1][4] - Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, showed minimal recovery after a decline in May, reflecting a stagnant economic environment [1][5] Divergence in Economic Indicators - Economic data reveals a tug-of-war: while inflation is stagnating, concerns over Trump's tariff policies potentially raising prices are growing, alongside a weak labor market leading to reduced consumer spending [2][3] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at its fifth consecutive meeting, with two members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point cut, highlighting internal divisions regarding monetary policy [4] Consumer Behavior and Spending Trends - Consumer spending has shown the weakest growth since the pandemic, with June's recovery primarily driven by a rebound in non-durable goods, while durable goods purchases have declined for three consecutive months, marking the longest streak since 2021 [5] - The root of consumer weakness is attributed to a cooling labor market, with real disposable income remaining flat after a decline in May and wage growth nearly stagnant [9] Inflation Drivers and Future Outlook - June's price increases were mainly driven by home goods, sports equipment, and clothing, reflecting the impact of import tariffs on consumer prices [9] - Economists warn of potential upward pressure on inflation due to a new round of tariffs expected to be announced by Trump, alongside sustained high levels of key PCE components [9]