What Analyst Projections for Key Metrics Reveal About TransDigm (TDG) Q3 Earnings

Core Insights - TransDigm Group (TDG) is expected to report quarterly earnings of $9.78 per share, reflecting an 8.7% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $2.3 billion, a 12.2% increase from the previous year [1] Earnings Estimates - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, with empirical studies showing a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [2] - The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been adjusted upward by 0.7% over the past 30 days, indicating analysts' reassessment of projections [1] Key Metrics Projections - Analysts estimate 'Net sales to external customers- Non-aviation' at $47.46 million, a decrease of 3.2% year-over-year [4] - 'Net sales to external customers- Airframe' is projected at $1.06 billion, reflecting a 9% increase year-over-year [4] - 'Net sales to external customers- Power & Control' is expected to reach $1.20 billion, indicating a 17.1% year-over-year increase [5] - 'Net sales to external customers- Airframe- Commercial and non-aerospace OEM' is forecasted at $341.67 million, a 5.8% increase from the previous year [5] - 'Net sales to external customers- Airframe- Defense' is estimated at $317.24 million, showing a 4.7% increase year-over-year [6] - 'Net sales to external customers- Power & Control- Defense' is projected at $530.29 million, reflecting an 11.2% increase [6] - 'Net sales to external customers- Power & Control- Commercial and non-aerospace aftermarket' is expected to be $363.15 million, a 14.6% increase [7] - 'Net sales to external customers- Power & Control- Commercial and non-aerospace OEM' is forecasted at $250.82 million, indicating a 9.5% increase [7] - 'Net sales to external customers- Airframe- Commercial and non-aerospace aftermarket' is estimated at $392.46 million, a 12.8% increase [8] EBITDA Projections - Analysts predict 'EBITDA- Power & Control' to reach $670.36 million, up from $587.00 million in the same quarter last year [8] - 'EBITDA- Non-aviation' is expected to be $3.57 million, down from $22.00 million year-over-year [9] - 'EBITDA- Airframe' is projected at $550.98 million, compared to $503.00 million in the previous year [9] Stock Performance - Over the past month, TransDigm shares have returned +7.2%, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +2.7% [10] - Currently, TDG holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance in the near future [10]