玻璃日内触及跌停，几乎回吐上周涨幅！源于成本坍塌还是政策预期幻灭？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant decline in glass futures prices, primarily driven by falling coal prices, which reduced production costs for coal-based glass [1] - The glass futures contract FG2509 experienced a trading volume of 2.84 million lots, with an increase in open interest by over 140,000 lots, highlighting heightened speculative trading despite regulatory measures [1] - The macroeconomic policy environment has not provided positive signals, with recent meetings reiterating existing policies without introducing new fiscal measures or real estate support, leading to increased investor risk aversion [1] Group 2 - The overall market for glass is under pressure, with regional performance showing significant differences; for instance, prices in North China are stable while East China sees slight declines [1] - Inventory data reveals a decrease in total inventory to 59.49 million heavy boxes, marking a six-week decline, but this is driven by midstream shifts rather than improvements in end-user consumption [1] - The production side shows a recovery, with the float glass industry operating at a 75% capacity utilization rate, reaching a new high of 79.78% [1] Group 3 - Profit margins for different production processes show a clear divergence, with coal-to-gas and petroleum coke processes achieving weekly profits exceeding 135 CNY/ton, while natural gas processes remain at a loss [2] - The demand outlook remains weak, with policy expectations falling short and urban renewal efforts focusing on high-quality development, resulting in sales rates in major regions between 60-80% [2] Group 4 - Multiple institutions predict that glass prices will maintain high volatility, with structural demand differentiation and unclear seasonal improvement expectations [3] - Some institutions suggest a low-long strategy for glass futures, indicating that the fundamental situation remains largely unchanged despite increased speculative trading [3] - The weak demand from the real estate sector, which constitutes about 75% of glass demand, is expected to dominate short-term market logic, as sales and new construction remain sluggish [3]