美联储9月会降息吗？这是中金的判断

Group 1 - The debate on whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September is intensifying after maintaining the status quo in July [1] - CICC's macroeconomic analysts suggest that the Fed is inclined to remain patient and will not lower rates due to pressure from Trump [1][6] - The chief overseas strategy analyst at CICC indicates that the market may misunderstand the Fed's decision-making prerequisites, as a rate cut does not necessarily have to wait for inflation to decline [2][4] Group 2 - The internal need for the Fed to cut rates is evident, with the current real interest rate at 1.63%, significantly higher than the natural rate of about 1% [2][4] - Economic growth and the job market are showing signs of moderate weakening, with the average growth rate over the past two quarters at approximately 1.5% when excluding tariff impacts [2][4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is becoming clearer, with effective tax rates expected to stabilize between 15%-16% after August 1, making the inflation transmission path more predictable [4] Group 3 - The Fed's independence is a critical factor, as it will not adjust rates due to political pressure, maintaining its focus on full employment and stable inflation [6][7][8] - The Fed's recent decision to hold rates steady aligns with market expectations, despite some dissenting opinions among board members [6] - Future months will see the inflation effects of tariffs become more pronounced, potentially delaying rate cuts if Trump escalates tariffs further [7]