美联储最爱通胀指标意外回升！美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，创4个月新高

Core Insights - The U.S. economy is sending mixed signals amid persistent inflation pressures and weak consumer spending, complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook [1][8] - The June PCE price index rose 2.6% year-on-year, above the expected 2.5%, with the previous value revised up to 2.3% [1] - The core PCE price index increased by 2.8% year-on-year in June, surpassing the expected 2.7%, marking the highest level since February [1] Consumer Spending and Labor Market - Despite rising prices, consumer spending shows signs of fatigue, with real consumer spending only growing by 0.1% in June, failing to reverse the previous month's decline [4] - Durable goods spending has declined for three consecutive months, the longest streak since 2021, while service spending remains low, indicating weak discretionary spending [4] - Real disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May, with weak wage growth limiting consumer spending willingness [4] Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as rising core inflation raises concerns, yet weak consumer and labor market conditions prompt some policymakers to advocate for interest rate cuts [5] - The Fed maintained interest rates for the fifth consecutive time, with two board members unusually voting in favor of a 25 basis point cut, highlighting increasing internal divisions [5] Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock index futures maintained gains, Treasury yields declined, and the dollar remained stable, reflecting market caution regarding the Fed's policy direction [8] - The June PCE data intensified policy divisions within the Fed, as core inflation remains above target while consumer and income growth show signs of weakness [8]