“减肥神药”增长现颓势

Core Viewpoint - The competitive landscape of the weight loss drug market is changing, with Novo Nordisk's semaglutide showing signs of decline after recently surpassing Merck's PD-1 inhibitor to become the "king of drugs" [1][4]. Sales Outlook Adjustment - Novo Nordisk has lowered its sales outlook for 2025, now expecting a growth of 8%-14% compared to the previous forecast of 13%-21% [3][6]. - The reduction in sales expectations is primarily driven by lower growth projections for Wegovy in the U.S. obesity market and Ozempic in the GLP-1 diabetes market [3][4]. Market Performance - In 2023, semaglutide generated sales of $21.201 billion, making it a close contender for the top-selling drug globally [4]. - Following the profit warning, Novo Nordisk's stock price dropped significantly, with a decline of 21.83% on July 29 and an additional 7.25% on July 30, resulting in a market value loss of over $60 billion [4][8]. Competitive Pressure - Novo Nordisk faces increasing competition from Eli Lilly's dual-target weight loss drug tirzepatide, which has shown superior weight loss results in clinical trials [7][10]. - The company is also challenged by the presence of GLP-1 combination products that are gaining market traction, leading to slower-than-expected sales growth for Wegovy [7][8]. Strategic Responses - Novo Nordisk is exploring various strategies, including litigation, to protect patients from products claiming to contain "semaglutide formulations" that are not verified for safety and efficacy [8][10]. - The company aims to develop a differentiated treatment portfolio that goes beyond weight loss to improve overall metabolic and cardiovascular health [8][11]. Emerging Competitors - Chinese pharmaceutical companies are making strides in the GLP-1 space, with new drug approvals and ongoing clinical trials for multi-target drugs [10][11]. - Notable advancements include the approval of a dual receptor agonist by Innovent Biologics and ongoing developments by other local firms in the GLP-1 category [10]. Market Demand and Challenges - Despite the rising competition, there is a growing demand for GLP-1 drugs due to the increasing prevalence of obesity and diabetes, which may expand market opportunities [11]. - However, the industry faces challenges such as intensified competition and potential overcapacity risks as more companies enter the market [11].