Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-07-31 22:47Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US GDP growth in Q2 exceeded expectations, supported by a decline in imports, resilient consumption, and private non-residential investment [1][2] - The annualized quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 reached 3.0%, higher than the market expectation of 2.6% and significantly above the previous value of -0.5% [2] - The main drag on GDP came from changes in private inventories, residential investment, and exports of goods and services [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates during the July 2025 meeting, but internal divisions have increased, with two members advocating for a 25 basis point cut [3] - The Fed expressed greater uncertainty regarding economic and inflation outlooks, changing its statement from reduced uncertainty to acknowledging that uncertainty remains [3] - Powell reiterated the Fed's independence and provided ambiguous forward guidance, indicating a hawkish stance, which has led to a decrease in market expectations for rate cuts throughout the year [3][4] Group 3 - The expectation for rate cuts throughout the year has narrowed, with the market reflecting only one potential cut in October, aligning with previous forecasts [4] - The anticipated impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to constrain rate cuts, with the 10-year Treasury yield projected to oscillate between 4.5% and 5.0% in the second half of the year [4] - The stock market is expected to experience some volatility in the second half, but the overall upward trend remains intact, particularly in sectors supported by capital expenditures and performance, such as AI and semiconductors [4]