WTO：一季度全球服贸增长放缓，但AI和旅游需求在发力

Core Insights - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reported a slowdown in global service trade growth to 5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, which is about half of the growth rates seen in 2024 and 2023 [2] - The slowdown is attributed to the appreciation of the US dollar against the euro and other currencies, along with increased economic uncertainty [2] - Service exports from Europe and North America grew only 3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, compared to 8% and 11% in Q1 2024, while Asia maintained a strong growth rate of 9% [2] Service Trade Slowdown Reasons - The primary reason for the overall slowdown in global service trade is the "other business services" category, which includes a wide range of services delivered mainly in a digital format [4] - In 2024, "other business services" accounted for approximately 60% of global service trade, with Europe contributing 40% of the exports [5] Sector-Specific Performance - In Q1 2025, the growth of sub-sectors within "other business services" slowed compared to the same period in 2024, with US exports growing by 4% versus 8% previously [6] - Financial services exports grew only 3% year-on-year, reflecting reduced investment activity due to global economic uncertainty, with EU and US exports growing by just 2% [6] - Global intellectual property-related services grew by 4% in Q1 2025, down from 7% in 2024, with the EU and US accounting for nearly 70% of 2024 exports [6] AI and Tourism Demand - Computer services exports were only slightly affected by the overall economic slowdown, driven by strong demand for AI, digital transformation, and cybersecurity solutions [7] - In Q1 2025, international travel grew by 5% year-on-year, with Asia seeing a 13% increase in tourism revenue, particularly driven by China (+96%) and other countries in the region [8] Regional Trade Performance - In the first five months of 2025, China's service trade grew steadily, with total service trade amounting to 32,543.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7% [9] - The US service exports grew by 5%, while Canada experienced a decline of 6%, indicating divergent trends in North America [9]