TF Securities(SH:601162) Di Yi Cai Jing·2025-08-01 00:33Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Chinese liquor industry will experience four major changes in the first half of 2025 due to economic and policy influences [1] Group 2 - Change in product matrix: Companies are focusing on low-alcohol, youth-oriented, and high-cost performance trends, emphasizing the serialization of low-alcohol products and mid-range pricing, along with product quality upgrades [1] - Continuous channel upgrades: Companies are strengthening channel control by forming platform companies and balancing online and offline channels [1] - Marketing strategies: Companies are moving away from "red envelope" competition and focusing on cultivating new scenarios and target demographics [1] - Rational goal setting: Leading companies are prioritizing channel health and long-term development, taking a rational view of performance growth targets [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio in the liquor sector may recover before earnings per share (EPS), with a potential EPS turning point expected in the second quarter of 2026 due to a low base effect [1] - Investment opportunities are highlighted, focusing on companies with strong brands, resilient demand, and attractive dividend returns [1] - The report also points out potential recovery opportunities driven by changes in policy and demand [1]