Xuan Gu Bao·2025-08-01 00:40Core Insights - The manufacturing PMI for July is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a historically low level for this period [2][3] - Weak demand is the primary reason for the July PMI decline, with new orders and new export orders significantly below historical averages [3][5] - The production index remains resilient despite seasonal weaknesses caused by extreme weather conditions, holding steady at historical levels [4] Group 1: PMI Performance - The July manufacturing PMI is 49.3%, remaining below the growth line for four consecutive months, and is only higher than the figures from 2021 and 2022 [3] - The production index for July is 50.5%, slightly below the historical average, influenced by seasonal factors such as high temperatures and flooding [4] - New orders index stands at 49.4%, falling below the growth line and significantly lower than historical levels, with new export orders also declining [5] Group 2: Demand Signals - The July PMI indicates potential marginal slowdown in exports, with high-frequency data showing signs of weakening exports [7] - The import throughput at the Port of Los Angeles has decreased, reflecting a drop in shipping rates for routes to the U.S. [7] - South Korea's export data for the first 20 days of July shows a year-on-year decline of 2.2%, contrasting with a previous increase of 8.3% [7] Group 3: Price Trends - The "anti-involution" trend has led to rising price expectations in upstream markets, but the sustainability of these price increases is uncertain due to weak demand [8] - The index for major raw material purchase prices rose to 51.5%, an increase of 3.1 percentage points, surpassing the increase in factory prices [6] - Recent government policies aimed at curbing low-price competition may impact the future dynamics of production capacity and pricing in key industries [8]