全球铜市：关税冲击下的韧性与机遇

Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, copper prices experienced significant fluctuations, with LME copper price reaching $9,878 per ton, marking a year-to-date increase of 12.49%, while Shanghai copper futures rose by 8.27% to 79,870 CNY per ton [1] - The U.S. tariff policies under President Trump have caused considerable market disruptions, leading to concerns about a global economic recession, which impacted stock and futures markets [2][3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8%, with developed economies' growth expectations lowered from 1.9% to 1.4% [3] Supply Analysis - Global copper mine production from January to April 2025 totaled 7.5254 million metric tons, an increase of 2.64% year-on-year, but major copper producers reported a decline in output [8][9] - The anticipated global copper mine increment for 2025 is between 220,000 to 300,000 tons, with significant contributions expected from projects like Oyu Tolgoi and Kamoa-Kakula [11] - Domestic copper concentrate production in China for January to March 2025 reached 427,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.26%, but still below levels from 2022 and 2023 [12] Demand Analysis - In the U.S., new housing starts have declined, while automotive sales remain stable, contributing limited growth to copper consumption [17] - In China, investment in power grid projects increased by 14.59% year-on-year, and the production of new energy vehicles surged by 48.35% [17] - Overall, domestic copper consumption is expected to show resilience, with strong growth in the power grid sector and stable performance in the automotive sector [17] Trade Flow Changes - The U.S. initiated a "232 investigation" into copper imports, leading to significant changes in global copper trade flows, with COMEX and LME markets experiencing increased arbitrage trading [18][19] - Chile's refined copper exports decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, while exports to the U.S. saw a significant increase of 116.11% [19] - As of June 30, 2025, global copper inventories decreased by 20.59% year-on-year, indicating tightening supply conditions [19] Outlook for the Second Half - The copper market is expected to maintain high prices due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, supply constraints, and resilient demand [20] - If no major risk events occur, copper prices may continue to rise, potentially reaching new highs, although there is a risk of temporary price corrections following the implementation of U.S. tariffs [21]