全球铜市“巨震”，押注“TACO”的人又赢了

Group 1 - The unexpected exemption on refined copper products by President Trump has disrupted market expectations, leading to significant losses for traders who bet on rising copper prices in the U.S. [1] - The announcement resulted in a dramatic market reaction, with copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange plummeting by 22%, marking the largest single-day drop since at least 1988 [1][2]. - The market upheaval indicates that many long positions based on U.S. protectionist policies faced substantial losses, while those betting on Trump's unpredictability reaped significant rewards [3]. Group 2 - The unexpected move by Trump caused a collapse of what was considered one of the most profitable commodity trading strategies in modern history, as the price difference between Comex copper and LME copper vanished [4]. - Prior to the announcement, Comex copper had a premium exceeding 20% over LME prices, but this premium disappeared following the exemption news, with Comex copper prices turning into a discount compared to LME [4]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs noted that this deviation from market expectations would not alter the fundamental market conditions, maintaining that Comex prices should at least align with LME prices [5]. Group 3 - The reversal in market sentiment was particularly beneficial for traders who doubted Trump's commitment to his tariff threats, with a significant increase in the number of profitable put options following the exemption announcement [6]. - The options market data showed that over 31,000 contracts shifted from out-of-the-money to in-the-money status, with a nominal value soaring to $3.54 billion [3][6]. - Lobbying efforts from various stakeholders, including U.S. copper producers and foreign governments, played a role in influencing the policy direction regarding refined copper tariffs [7].