黄金今日行情走势要点分析（2025.8.1）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures in the U.S., and changes in U.S. tariff policies, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Fundamental Analysis - Tariff uncertainties have heightened risk aversion among investors, with the U.S. increasing tariffs on Canada from 25% to 35% and imposing additional tariffs on imports from Brazil and South Korea, which is expected to escalate inflationary pressures and market tensions [3]. - U.S. inflation is rising, with the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increasing by 0.3% month-over-month, and the core PCE inflation rate growing by 2.8% year-over-year, complicating market expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4]. - Geopolitical tensions are escalating, particularly in the Middle East, with Israel conducting airstrikes against Hezbollah and considering broader military actions, which, combined with trade war dynamics, is driving investors towards gold [5]. - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during its July 31 meeting, with Chairman Powell indicating that current inflation pressures are too high, reducing the likelihood of rate cuts in September [6]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold prices showed a recovery after a significant drop, closing with a long upper shadow indicating potential resistance around the 5-day moving average near 3300 [9]. - The four-hour chart indicates that gold is at a critical juncture, with the 3268 level being pivotal for potential upward movement. If this level holds, a rebound towards 3353/3354 and 3373/3374 could occur [10].