特朗普终结小额豁免政策，中国小包裹关税新政火速落地

Core Points - The Trump administration has abruptly ended the global de minimis tax exemption policy, originally set to expire in July 2027, citing a "national emergency" to protect American citizens and businesses [1] - Starting August 29, all packages valued under $800 sent to the U.S. will no longer enjoy tax exemption, significantly impacting the global cross-border e-commerce sector and American consumers [1] Policy Details and Loopholes - Under the new regulations, packages sent via postal systems face two customs duty options: either pay a "value-added tax" based on the country of origin or a fixed fee ranging from $80 to $200 [2] - In contrast, packages shipped through commercial express channels must pay all applicable duties without any exemptions [2] - Short-term travelers may be the only exception, as personal items valued under $200 and gifts under $100 can still enjoy tax exemption [2] Data Behind the Policy - The decision was driven by alarming statistics showing a surge in de minimis packages from 134 million in 2015 to 1.36 billion in 2024, with an average daily processing volume exceeding 4 million [3] - Low-cost e-commerce goods from Asia accounted for 55% of air freight from China to the U.S., a significant increase from 5% in 2018 [3] Initial Impact of the Policy - The effects of the new policy are already visible, with a 10.7% drop in air freight from Asia following the cancellation of tax exemptions for Chinese packages in May [4] - Reports indicate that prices for some e-commerce platform products have doubled, and many users are experiencing shipping delays [4] - Several foreign brands have halted shipments to the U.S., and some small businesses are forced to exit the U.S. market [4] Who Will Be Affected - The primary victims of this policy are low-income American families, with a report predicting potential annual losses of up to $47 billion, directly impacting those reliant on affordable cross-border goods [5] - Essential items such as clothing, daily necessities, and small electronics will likely see price increases [5] Corporate Response Strategies - In response to the sudden tariff shock, companies are rapidly adjusting their strategies, with platforms like Temu shifting to U.S. warehouses to avoid tariffs [8] - Some footwear brands are relocating inventory from Canadian warehouses to the U.S. to mitigate costs associated with tariffs on goods transiting through Canada [8] Challenges for Customs - The full implementation of the new policy poses significant challenges for the U.S. customs system, with warnings that processing all packages individually could require billions in investments for manpower and system upgrades [9] Execution Challenges - The policy has already revealed execution issues, as seen in February when a brief cancellation of the tax exemption was reversed due to customs' inability to handle the volume of packages [11] - Legal battles and delays have also plagued the implementation of the tax exemption ban on Chinese goods [11] Perspectives - Analysts have pointed out that while the policy appears to target China, it effectively acts as a tax increase on American consumers [13]