郑春荣：德国新总理的涉华表态，为何比往届更谨慎？

Group 1 - The preliminary trade agreement between the US and EU, announced on July 27, has raised concerns among EU member states, particularly Germany, regarding its potential impact on the European economy [1][2] - German businesses express disappointment over the 15% tariffs and additional conditions, fearing they will exacerbate the already weak German and European economies, affecting GDP growth and export performance [2][5] - The agreement is seen as a pragmatic acceptance by Germany, avoiding a more severe scenario of a 30% punitive tariff or a full-blown trade war, which would be detrimental to the German economy [2][3] Group 2 - The agreement's impact on key German industries such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and machinery is significant, with potential shifts in supply chains and market adjustments as companies may consider relocating to the US [5][6] - Uncertainties remain regarding the specifics of the agreement, including how the $750 billion procurement commitment will be calculated and whether all industries will be subject to the 15% tariff [5][6] - The EU's internal divisions regarding the agreement are evident, with countries like France and Spain expressing strong opposition, while Germany adopts a more pragmatic stance focused on avoiding the worst outcomes [6][7] Group 3 - The agreement marks a pivotal moment in transatlantic relations under the Trump administration, with implications for Europe's structural dependence on the US in energy and security [7][8] - Despite discussions of "strategic autonomy," Europe's reliance on the US has not diminished, as evidenced by increased collaboration within NATO and the need to maintain defense ties [7][8] - Germany's approach to strategic autonomy is characterized by a balanced view, seeking to enhance its independent capabilities while still relying on the US for certain defense needs [7][8] Group 4 - The EU's recent high-level engagements with China indicate a desire to reduce dependence on the US and explore constructive relations with China, despite ongoing tensions [10][12] - The current German government under Chancellor Merz shows continuity in its China policy, focusing on pragmatic economic cooperation while maintaining a cautious stance on sensitive issues [12][12] - There is a possibility of increased cooperation between Germany and China in the second half of the year, as the government seeks to strengthen economic ties [12]