日本央行连续4次“按兵不动”，日本货币政策正常化进程陷入两难

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the policy interest rate at around 0.5%, with unanimous agreement from the nine members of the monetary policy meeting [1] - The Bank of Japan raised its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year due to rising food prices, which is seen as a reason for potential future interest rate hikes [2] - The core CPI in Japan reached a year-on-year growth of 3.7% in May, the highest since January 2023, but decreased to 3.3% in June, still above the 2% target [2] Group 2 - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated that future interest rate decisions will not solely depend on the increase in consumer inflation expectations, which are mainly influenced by rising food prices [3] - The current monetary policy faces dual pressures: persistent inflation and financial stability risks, complicating the normalization process [5] - The increase in policy rates could significantly raise the government's debt servicing costs, with a 1% rise in rates potentially increasing repayment costs by 3.7 trillion yen for the fiscal year 2025 [5] Group 3 - The recent depreciation of the yen against the dollar, falling to 150 for the first time since April, did not overly concern the Bank of Japan, indicating a stable outlook for the yen [5] - HSBC's research report highlights the evolving political landscape in Japan, which adds uncertainty to the Bank of Japan's normalization path and may lead to fluctuations in the yen [6] - The expectation is that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates once in October 2025, with potential dollar weakness in the fourth quarter influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate [6]