BUD APAC(HK:01876) 智通财经网·2025-08-01 01:40Core Viewpoint - CICC has downgraded Budweiser APAC's EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 6% to $1.679 billion and $1.771 billion respectively, due to weak demand in the China region [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - 2Q25 results met market expectations with revenue, volume, ASP, and EBITDA showing year-on-year changes of -3.9%, -6.2%, +2.4%, and -4.5% respectively [2] - In China, revenue, volume, ASP, and EBITDA saw declines of -6.4%, -7.4%, +1.1%, and -4.0% year-on-year [2] Group 2: China Market Analysis - In 2Q25, China's sales volume decreased by 6.4% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed compared to previous quarters, attributed to inventory reduction and channel structure adjustments [3] - The ASP in China improved by 1.1% year-on-year due to product mix optimization, with high-end and super high-end products gaining a larger share in non-immediate consumption channels [3] Group 3: Regional Performance - The Indian market continued to show double-digit growth in 2Q25, while the Korean market faced challenges due to preemptive stocking and market weakness, leading to a decline in sales volume [4] - In the Asia-Pacific East region, revenue, volume, ASP, and EBITDA experienced year-on-year declines of -8.4%, -10.4%, +2.2%, and -26.5% respectively [4] Group 4: Outlook for 2H25 - The company expects stabilization and gradual improvement in performance, with a focus on dealer interests in China and low channel inventory levels [5] - The company plans to continue investing in high-end products in Korea and leverage high-end and super high-end products in India for growth [5] - Cost expectations for barley and other raw materials remain low, which may support profit margin recovery [5]