Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) is a globally integrated electrolytic aluminum enterprise with a full industry chain layout, high production capacity, and cost advantages. The company has a high dividend yield, and the merger and restructuring of its subsidiary Hongchuang Holdings (002379) will lead to the listing of core aluminum assets in A-shares, further enhancing profit margins and valuation space. The expected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.37, 2.45, and 2.52 CNY, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 8.1, 7.9, and 7.6, with a strong buy rating given for the first coverage [1]. Group 1 - China Hongqiao is a leading electrolytic aluminum producer with a comprehensive domestic and international industry chain layout, producing and selling aluminum products including electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum processing products, with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons and alumina capacity of 21 million tons [2]. - The company has a stable gross profit margin, with a projected sales gross margin of 27.0% for 2024, significantly higher than comparable companies, and has maintained stable historical gross margins [2]. - The company is focused on future sustainability, relocating 203,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan to increase the use of green electricity, with 148.8 thousand tons already in production as of Q1 2025 [2]. Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum operating rate is high, with domestic inventory at a historical low of 51,000 tons as of July 24, 2025, supporting aluminum prices, while the operating rate exceeds 97% [3]. - The company has maintained a high dividend yield since its listing in 2011, with a projected dividend of 161 Hong Kong cents per share for 2024, a 156% increase from 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 13.69% based on the last trading day’s closing price [3]. - The merger of the company's main electrolytic aluminum production enterprise, Hongtuo Industrial, with its subsidiary Hongchuang Holdings will significantly enhance the scale and profitability of Hongchuang Holdings, thereby opening up valuation space for China Hongqiao [4].
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