Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-01 02:02Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that MGM China (02282) has its adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 raised by 3% to HKD 9.888 billion and HKD 10.271 billion respectively, due to the opening of villa products [1] - The current stock price corresponds to a 7x EV/EBITDA for 2025, and the target price has been raised by 18% to HKD 19.80, indicating a 27% upside potential compared to the current stock price [1] - MGM China's 2Q25 performance showed net revenue of HKD 8.667 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8%, recovering to 157% of 2Q19 levels [1] Group 2 - The management observed strong performance across all business segments in July 2025, with market share and profit margins remaining stable, and expects continued strong performance during the summer [2] - The strong market share is attributed to the trial operation of the Alpha villa targeting ultra-high-end customers, with the official opening expected before the National Day Golden Week in 2025 [2] - MGM China's total gaming revenue market share reached 16.6% in 2Q25, with a monthly increase, and the market share in June 2025 was approximately 17%, driven by visitor volume and high-end customers [2]