业绩失守、三期款悬停、对赌压顶，上药罗欣价值重估已“箭在弦上”？

Core Viewpoint - The performance-based agreement in the pharmaceutical capital market is facing significant challenges, particularly highlighted by the recent announcement from Luoxin Pharmaceutical regarding its subsidiary Shandong Luoxin and the equity transaction with Shanghai Pharmaceuticals [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Metrics and Financial Implications - The audited report indicates that Shanghai Luoxin's revenue for 2024 is projected at 1.832 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.6856 million yuan, resulting in a performance completion rate of 31.74% [2][7]. - The payment for the third phase of the equity transfer, amounting to 26.3428 million yuan, has not been received by Shandong Luoxin, raising concerns about the future valuation of Shanghai Luoxin [2][7]. - The performance commitments for the three-year agreement require Shanghai Luoxin to achieve revenues of 3.146 billion yuan and 3.461 billion yuan for 2023 and 2024, respectively, with net profits of 55.18 million yuan and 60.69 million yuan [5][7]. Group 2: Market Context and Challenges - The decline in Shanghai Luoxin's performance is attributed to tightening industry policies, increased market competition, and high transformation costs [10][11]. - The normalization of volume-based procurement has significantly squeezed profits in the pharmaceutical distribution sector, particularly affecting companies reliant on traditional distribution methods [11]. - By the end of 2024, over 500 drug varieties are expected to be included in national procurement, with average price reductions of 74.5%, further pressuring profit margins [11]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Innovations - Despite current challenges, the pharmaceutical industry is anticipated to experience substantial recovery starting in 2025, driven by optimized drug review processes and accelerated market access for new drugs [10][12]. - Luoxin Pharmaceutical's recent half-year performance forecast for 2025 indicates a potential turnaround, with expected net profits of 15 to 20 million yuan, driven by the commercialization of its core innovative drug [12]. - The introduction of a tiered payment system for innovative drugs is expected to enhance market access and support the growth of new pharmaceutical products [12].