Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the US dollar is entering a new downward cycle due to a combination of short-term, medium-term, and long-term pressures, including interest rate differentials, US debt issues, and the trend of de-dollarization [1][2][19]. Short-term Analysis - Since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes began in 2022, the widening interest rate differential between the US and non-US markets has been a key factor supporting the dollar's high position [3]. - The ability of the Federal Reserve to initiate consecutive rate cuts will be crucial for the dollar's future trajectory, as inflation in the US is expected to align more closely with other major economies by mid-2025 [4][5]. - The US economy is showing increasing signs of downward pressure, with a reported GDP contraction of 0.2% in Q1 2025, indicating a broad decline across various economic indicators [5]. - Other markets are expected to see a slowdown in easing monetary policies, which could further compress the interest rate differentials that have supported the dollar [7][8]. Medium-term Analysis - The US Treasury market is facing significant supply-demand imbalances, exacerbated by the current administration's fiscal policies, which could negatively impact the dollar's value [11][12]. - Over the past two years, the Treasury market has experienced three notable supply-demand crises, indicating ongoing instability [13][14]. - The recent "Great Beautiful Plan" proposed by the Trump administration is projected to worsen the fiscal deficit, leading to further imbalances in the Treasury market [15][16]. - By the end of 2024, the US federal debt is expected to exceed $36 trillion, with interest payments projected to reach $952 billion, creating substantial pressure on the dollar [16]. Long-term Analysis - The dollar's dominance is being challenged by a decline in the US's international standing and responsibilities, with its share of global GDP dropping to 14.9% by 2024 [18]. - The trend of de-dollarization is accelerating, with various countries exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade and reserves, which could significantly reduce demand for the dollar [19]. - Historical precedents suggest that large-scale de-dollarization can lead to severe depreciation of the dollar, as seen after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [19].
美元新周期:美元的短中长三重压力
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-01 02:42