山海：美元极强打压黄金，市场等待非农数据的冲击！

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the US dollar is suppressing gold prices, with the market awaiting the impact of non-farm payroll data [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Data and Trends - Recent data including ADP, unemployment claims, and PCE have been favorable for the dollar and unfavorable for gold, contributing to the dollar's significant rise this year, nearing the 100 mark [3][4] - Gold and silver have been under pressure, failing to establish a strong upward trend despite attempts at rebounds [3][4] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is expected to influence the relationship between the dollar and gold, with a focus on whether a negative correlation will emerge [3][5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold is currently in a weak consolidation phase, with key resistance levels at 3315 and 3345, and support levels at 3280 and 3260 [4][5] - The market anticipates a range-bound movement for gold before the non-farm data release, with a trading range set between 3280 and 3315 [5] - The previous non-farm payroll figure was 147,000, with a forecast of 110,000, suggesting that if actual data aligns closely with predictions, the impact on gold may be limited [5] Group 3: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic gold prices have shown a continuation of weak trends, with recent fluctuations failing to establish a clear upward trajectory [5] - The Shanghai gold contract is currently trading around 772, with a medium-term bullish outlook targeting 790 [5] - The silver market is also under pressure, with a critical support level at 36, and potential for a rebound if this level holds [6] Group 4: Oil Market Overview - International crude oil has successfully risen to 70, with previous long positions yielding significant profits [6] - The overall bullish trend in oil remains intact, with potential upward targets set at 72 or higher [6] - Domestic fuel oil has shown an upward trend, with a focus on maintaining positions above 3000 [7]