马斯克错在哪儿？可别重蹈乔布斯的覆辙

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk predicts that the Optimus robot could increase Tesla's valuation to $20-30 trillion, which is 20-30 times its current value [1][3]. Group 1: Optimus Robot Potential - Musk claims that the demand for the Optimus robot will be enormous, suggesting that if Tesla can produce 1 billion units annually, it could generate $30 trillion in revenue [3]. - Musk reiterated in the Q2 2025 earnings call that the Optimus robot is likely to become Tesla's most important product in the future [3][7]. Group 2: Current Challenges and Market Response - At the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, the Optimus robot did not attract much attention, remaining behind glass while other robots engaged with visitors [4]. - The Optimus V3 design is complete but has not yet been released, with a planned launch by the end of 2025 [7][26]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Tesla reported a significant decline in Q2 revenue, with total revenue at $22.496 billion, down 12% year-over-year, marking the largest quarterly drop in nearly a decade [8]. - The net profit for the quarter was $1.172 billion, a 16% decrease year-over-year, with automotive revenue falling to $16.661 billion, down 16% [11][12]. Group 4: Production and Market Dynamics - Tesla's global vehicle deliveries fell to 384,100 units, a 13.5% decrease year-over-year, continuing a trend of two consecutive quarters of double-digit declines [9]. - The delivery of Model 3/Y vehicles was 373,700 units, down 12%, while high-end models like Model S/X saw a 52% drop in deliveries [10]. Group 5: Strategic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Optimus V3 could be a "lifeline" for Tesla amid declining automotive sales, but it may take until 2026 for the robot to have a significant financial impact [12][14]. - UBS has raised concerns about the necessity of humanoid robots and the challenges of cost control, predicting that it may take 3-5 years to overcome these hurdles [15][16].