Core Viewpoint - The report from CMB International maintains a target price of HKD 46 for New Oriental-S (09901) and a "Buy" rating, despite a downward adjustment in revenue and operating profit forecasts for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 [1] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The company has lowered its revenue forecast by approximately 3% for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, expecting revenue growth rates of 10% and 14% respectively [1] - Operating profit is expected to decrease by about 17%, with operating profit margins projected at 10.2% and 10.5%, showing a slight increase compared to the fiscal year 2025 [1] Business Segment Performance - CMB International remains optimistic about the demand and growth prospects for K12 education and training-related businesses [1] - The first quarter guidance was below expectations mainly due to seasonal factors, but growth rates are expected to recover in the second to fourth quarters [1] Valuation Methodology - The valuation method has been adjusted to SOTP (Sum of the Parts), assigning a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times for K12 business and 8 times for study abroad business for the fiscal year 2026, corresponding to profit growth rates of +22% and -10% respectively [1] Quarterly Performance - In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025, revenue increased by 9.4% year-on-year, surpassing the expectations of CMB International and other institutions, which were 2% and 5% respectively [1] - Excluding Dongfang Zhenxuan (01797), education and cultural tourism revenue grew by 19% year-on-year, with an education operating profit margin of 6.5%, an increase of 410 basis points compared to the same period last year, attributed to effective cost reduction and efficiency improvement measures [1] Management Guidance - The management has indicated that the group’s revenue is expected to increase by 5-10% for the fiscal year 2026, compared to the market expectation of 12% [1] - The main adjustment is a downward revision of the growth forecast for overseas-related business to a decline of 5%, while the growth rate for K12-related business remains in line with market expectations at 19% [1] - The company is accelerating cost optimization efforts, aiming to achieve stable or slightly increased operating profit margins for the year [1]
交银国际：维持新东方-S目标价46港元 评级“买入”