中国拒绝停购俄石油，特朗普不怒反喜称谈判良好，访华已有定数？

Core Insights - The global trade growth has reached a ten-year low due to geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, with the IMF highlighting these concerns [1] - The US has threatened China with punitive tariffs ranging from 100% to 500% if it continues to purchase Russian oil, aiming to disrupt Sino-Russian cooperation [2][5] - Despite US pressure, China has firmly rejected external interference in its energy import decisions, emphasizing the legality and mutual benefits of its energy cooperation with Russia [2][5] Trade Dynamics - In the first half of the year, the bilateral trade volume between the US and China reached $2.3 trillion, indicating a high level of economic interdependence [1] - The US is also considering secondary sanctions against countries importing Russian oil, but major economies like India and Brazil have resisted US pressure and continue their energy cooperation with Russia [5][12] Tariff Negotiations - The negotiations have been characterized by the US's "maximum pressure" approach, with President Trump initially pessimistic about progress but later claiming that negotiations were going well [7][9] - Trump's shift in tone appears aimed at stabilizing market sentiment despite limited substantive progress in the talks [9] Emerging Market Response - BRICS nations are increasingly collaborating to counter external pressures, with trade among these countries growing by 11.2% year-on-year, surpassing the global average [14] - The US's aggressive trade tactics are seen as accelerating the reshaping of global trade dynamics, with emerging markets like China, India, and Brazil becoming key growth engines [14] Technology Sector Tensions - High-tech sectors have become a focal point in US-China negotiations, with the US attempting to impose technology controls to hinder China's advancements in areas like semiconductors and AI [16][18] - Despite calls for "decoupling," most US companies still value the Chinese market, indicating a complex interdependence that is difficult to unravel [18] Geopolitical Implications - The potential visit of President Trump to China is viewed as a significant geopolitical event that could ease tensions and impact global supply chains and capital flows [20] - Analysts suggest that improved US-China relations could lead to a 0.4% increase in global economic growth by 2026, highlighting the broader implications of these diplomatic efforts [20]