从暴涨到暴跌，碳酸锂价格“过山车”背后发生了什么？

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in lithium carbonate futures prices follows a period of rapid increase, driven by market optimism and speculation, but this enthusiasm is now tempered by concerns over supply and demand dynamics [3][5][12]. Group 1: Price Fluctuations - Lithium carbonate futures experienced significant volatility, with prices rising from 58,400 yuan/ton to 80,500 yuan/ton between June 23 and July 25, marking a 36.71% increase [3][4]. - Following this surge, prices began to drop sharply, with a notable decline of 7.98% on July 28 and further drops leading to a closing price of 68,280 yuan/ton on July 31, reflecting a 4.66% decrease [3][4]. Group 2: Factors Driving Price Changes - Three main factors contributed to the recent price surge in lithium carbonate: 1. Government concerns over overcapacity and a push against price wars and excessive competition, leading to heightened market expectations for a price reversal [5]. 2. Continued growth in downstream demand, particularly from the electric vehicle sector, with projected sales of 5.674 million units in the first half of 2025, a 33% year-on-year increase [6]. 3. Supply-side constraints, including production halts and maintenance, which have reduced output and supported price increases [8][10]. Group 3: Long-term Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite recent price increases, the long-term outlook remains cautious, with ongoing supply pressures expected to persist. In the first half of the year, lithium salt production in China reached 566,000 tons, a 14.5% year-on-year increase, indicating a high supply and inventory situation [13]. - The market is characterized by a "weak balance" where demand growth is insufficient to cover supply increases, leading to a potential stagnation in prices around cost lines until a new equilibrium is established [14].