Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve, led by Chairman Jerome Powell, is maintaining a cautious stance on interest rate cuts despite signs of economic slowdown, emphasizing that policy adjustments will not occur until inflation convincingly returns to the 2% target [1][2][3] Group 1: Monetary Policy Stance - Powell describes the current monetary policy as "moderately restrictive," indicating comfort with the existing federal funds rate target range of 4.25% to 4.5% [2] - The Fed's cautious approach sets a high bar for any potential rate cuts, relying on upcoming employment and inflation data to assess risks [2][5] - The Fed believes the current interest rate effectively curbs inflation without excessively hindering economic growth, suggesting a balanced approach [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Economic growth is projected to slow, with GDP growth expected to drop to 1.2% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [2] - The labor market remains robust, with an unemployment rate of 4.1%, providing the Fed with confidence to maintain its current policy stance [2][5] - Powell acknowledges the impact of tariffs on consumer prices, which adds uncertainty to the inflation outlook [2][3] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Balance - The Fed is focused on ensuring that temporary price increases from tariffs do not lead to persistent inflation issues, reflecting its commitment to price stability [3] - Powell introduces the concept of "efficiency" in rate cuts, warning that premature cuts could trigger inflation rebounds while delayed cuts might harm the labor market [3][4] - The Fed is navigating a complex balance between maximizing employment and maintaining price stability, prioritizing inflation control even at the cost of further economic slowdown [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The upcoming employment and inflation data will be critical in determining the Fed's next steps, with the potential for the "moderately restrictive" policy to remain in place longer if inflation does not decrease as desired [5][6] - Higher borrowing costs are expected to persist for businesses and consumers, continuing to exert pressure on economic growth [6]
【UNFX课堂】美联储的“耐心”:鲍威尔为降息设置高门槛
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-01 05:13