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开源证券：多国政策支持生物燃料行业发展 行业景气度向上
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-01 05:52

Group 1: SAF Market Insights - The prices of SAF in the EU and China as of July 30 are $2,023 and $1,850 per ton, reflecting increases of 10% and 3% respectively since the beginning of 2025 [2][3] - The European Commission has approved a €36 million aid program to encourage airlines in Denmark to use SAF on domestic routes, marking the first national aid plan aimed at promoting SAF [2][3] - Starting March 19, all domestic flights from Beijing Daxing, Chengdu Shuangliu, Zhengzhou Xinzheng, and Ningbo Lishe airports will regularly mix 1% SAF, with plans for a broader pilot program at provincial capital airports in the third quarter [2][3] Group 2: UCO Market Dynamics - As of July 30, the price of UCO (Used Cooking Oil) is at 7,050 RMB per ton, the highest since 2024, driven by increased demand from SAF and HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oil) [3] - The demand for HVO is expected to rise significantly, with projections indicating a potential increase of 1.5 million tons in Germany by 2026, nearly quadrupling the 2025 levels [3] - The prices of carbon credits in California and EU carbon permits have been rising since July, further enhancing the value of UCO [3] Group 3: Biodiesel Developments - The FOB prices for first and second-generation biodiesel in China are $1,155 and $1,675 per ton, showing increases of 10% and 9% respectively since the beginning of 2025 [4] - The European Commission has stated that there is insufficient evidence to confirm fraud in biodiesel imports from China [4] - The successful refueling of the "Yuzhan" vessel with B24 biofuel in Singapore indicates a new trend towards low-carbon applications in small vessels, with significant potential demand for biofuels in the future [4] Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Shandong Hi-Speed Energy (000803) plans to increase waste processing capacity from 5,490 tons/day to 8,000-10,000 tons/day, which is expected to double UCO production [5] - China Aviation Oil intends to invest 260 million RMB in Lianyungang Jiaao to gain a 10% stake, aiding the company in capturing domestic SAF market share [5] - Excellent New Energy (688196.SH) is planning significant biodiesel and SAF production capacities in Thailand, Singapore, and ongoing projects in Saudi Arabia [5]