Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-01 07:47Core Viewpoint - The express delivery industry is expected to see price stabilization and potential recovery in performance due to government policies against "involution" and recent mergers and acquisitions [1][4]. Short-term Price Stabilization - The express delivery industry has maintained a double-digit growth rate in volume since 2025, with an expected growth rate of 15% for the year. However, due to intense price competition among leading companies, the performance of franchise express companies has declined in Q1 2025, and this trend may continue into Q2 2025 [2][3]. Policy Background and Price Recovery - Under the guidance of local postal authorities, express delivery prices in certain grain-producing areas have shown signs of stabilization. As the off-peak season ends and the peak season begins in September, a broader price recovery is anticipated, which may alleviate the pressure on franchise operators and improve overall industry sentiment. A price increase of 0.1 yuan is estimated to increase net profit per share by 0.0375 yuan for listed companies [3][4]. Long-term Competitive Ecology Optimization - On July 25, Shentong announced a cash acquisition of 100% of Daniao Logistics for 362 million yuan. This move aims to create a dual business matrix of "economical express + quality express," optimizing product structure and capturing new market opportunities. The State Post Bureau has been encouraging mergers and acquisitions in the express delivery sector, which is expected to lead to a healthier industry structure and improved competitive ecology, presenting investment opportunities [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - Despite significant operational pressure in the express delivery sector in H1 2025, the potential for performance recovery in the short term and competitive ecology optimization in the long term suggests that express companies may see improved results. Recommendations include Jitu Express, Shentong, YTO Express, Zhongtong, and Yunda Express due to their respective growth prospects and market positions [5].