实验猴又涨价，竟是因为“老龄化”？

Core Viewpoint - The CRO leader, Zhaoyan Pharmaceutical, has nearly doubled in value, with a more than 50% increase in July, driven by signs of recovery in the CXO market and successful turnaround due to the value of laboratory monkeys [1][2]. Group 1: Market Recovery Signals - The market has observed a recovery signal in the CXO sector, with Zhaoyan Pharmaceutical successfully turning losses into profits by leveraging the value of laboratory monkeys [2][3]. - The increase in monkey prices is attributed to a tightening supply and recovering demand, indicating a potential new cycle in the market [12][24]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Zhaoyan Pharmaceutical's mid-year performance forecast indicates expected revenue between 630 million to 702 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of approximately 17.3% to 25.2%, but a net profit turnaround with estimates between 50.32 million to 75.49 million yuan, largely driven by biological asset value changes [8][9]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of laboratory monkeys is constrained by long breeding cycles and an aging population, with a significant increase in the proportion of breeding females over 8 years old, leading to a decline in reproductive rates [17][20]. - The current supply of laboratory monkeys is around 25,000 to 28,000 annually, while actual demand approaches 40,000, indicating a significant supply-demand gap [25]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry faces challenges in increasing monkey supply due to aging populations and long breeding cycles, with any potential recovery in supply expected to take several years [26][27]. - The interplay between biological cycles and market demand suggests that the industry may be on the brink of a new cycle, but significant hurdles remain in achieving a sustainable supply of laboratory monkeys [32][33].