揭秘真相，养老投资如何跑赢通胀

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that retirement investment should not solely focus on low-risk assets like bank deposits, as this can lead to a gradual erosion of purchasing power due to inflation. Instead, it advocates for including volatile equity assets in the investment portfolio to achieve better long-term returns [1][3][12]. Group 1: Inflation and Purchasing Power - The "real inflation rate" indicator, derived from the difference between the growth rate of broad money supply (M2) and GDP growth, reveals the reality of monetary overexpansion [2]. - Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that from 2014 to 2025, China's real inflation rate fluctuates between 0.4% and 8.7%, with median and average values at 4.3% and 4.0% respectively. At a moderate inflation rate of 4%, 1 million yuan will lose purchasing power to approximately 330,000 yuan in 30 years [3][5]. - Relying solely on low-risk savings products makes it difficult for retirement funds to withstand this gradual erosion of purchasing power, which is a significant threat to retirement investments [3][12]. Group 2: Equity Assets and Long-term Growth - Equity assets, such as stock funds, while exhibiting high short-term volatility, possess two irreplaceable characteristics for long-term investment: they are deeply tied to corporate profit growth and can achieve long-term appreciation through compounding effects [5][12]. - Historical data supports this notion, with Jeremy Siegel's research indicating that from 1802 to 2012, the inflation-adjusted annualized return of the U.S. stock market was 6.9%, significantly outperforming long-term government bonds at 3.6% [6][8]. - Siegel's further analysis from 1802 to 2021 shows that the longer the holding period, the narrower the range of returns for equity assets, ultimately converging towards expected returns [9][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - For investors who are unable to tolerate short-term volatility, two "gentler" equity participation strategies are suggested: 1. Dividend strategy, which involves investing in high-dividend index funds to obtain relatively predictable cash flow while retaining the potential for capital appreciation [14]. 2. Target risk funds, allowing investors to choose their desired level of volatility, such as a conservative allocation of 10-25% in equities for a balanced approach [14]. - The essence of retirement investment lies in cross-cycle asset allocation, where equity assets may lag in the short term but offer superior return elasticity in the long run compared to low-risk assets [11][12].