DLSM：高盛警告企业债信用利差逼近危机前水平 市场能放心吗？

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs strategists warn investors against complacency despite recent agreements between the U.S. and multiple trade partners, suggesting that risks may be accumulating beneath the surface [1] Group 1: Credit Spread and Economic Indicators - The global investment-grade corporate bond credit spread has compressed to 79 basis points, the lowest level since July 2007, which historically preceded the global financial crisis [3] - While a narrowing spread indicates improved market risk appetite and lower default expectations, it may also suggest a "blunting" of risk pricing mechanisms, potentially overlooking macroeconomic variables [3] - Current low spread levels exist against a backdrop of the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, with no clear signals of easing monetary policy despite marginal declines in core inflation data [3] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Leverage - Many institutions are forced to increase duration and lower credit quality in pursuit of relative returns, a strategy that may enhance short-term performance but could lead to rapid capital flight during market volatility [3] - If long-term U.S. Treasury yields fluctuate dramatically due to changes in growth or inflation expectations, it could trigger a chain reaction in leveraged funding [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Risk Management - The current corporate bond boom is not entirely disconnected from fundamentals, as some large companies exhibit strong cash flows and low default probabilities, supporting the rationale for low spreads [4] - However, the key concern is whether market risk appetite has exceeded reasonable limits, as systematic suppression of risk could amplify the impact of any economic or policy deviations [4] - Maintaining basic risk hedging strategies is crucial for investors to avoid the next market shock, as asset prices can temporarily detach from fundamentals, but market cycles will eventually revert to reality [4]