新茶饮六小龙：2025 上半年，谁赢麻了？

Core Insights - The new tea beverage industry is experiencing a significant transformation, with a focus on profitability and market differentiation as it shifts from incremental competition to stock competition [3][26] - The "New Tea Beverage Six Dragons" are highlighted, with distinct performance metrics among them, particularly in terms of sales volume, revenue, and market capitalization [3][4] Group 1: Market Performance - Mixue Ice City leads the market with an annual sales volume of 9 billion cups and revenue of 24.829 billion, establishing itself as the "scale king" [3][14] - Bawang Chaji has the highest gross and net profit margins among the brands, indicating superior profitability efficiency [3][17] - Nayuki Tea, once a high-end representative, is struggling with continuous losses due to its direct sales model [3][14] Group 2: IPO and Stock Performance - Mixue Ice City achieved a record IPO in Hong Kong, raising approximately 4 billion HKD and reaching a market capitalization of over 100 billion HKD [4][8] - The stock price changes from IPO to June 30, 2025, show significant disparities, with Guming up 175% and Nayuki down 93% [6][8] - As of June 30, 2025, the market capitalizations are: Mixue Ice City (178.9 billion), Guming (56.7 billion), Bawang Chaji (34.6 billion), and Nayuki Tea (1.9 billion) [8][14] Group 3: Financial Metrics - In terms of revenue, Mixue Ice City leads with 24.829 billion, followed by Bawang Chaji (12.406 billion) and Guming (8.791 billion) [14][17] - Mixue Ice City has the highest number of stores at 46,479, significantly more than its competitors combined [15][17] - Bawang Chaji, while not leading in revenue, has the highest gross margin at 47.76% and net margin at 20.27%, indicating strong profitability [17][18] Group 4: Strategic Focus - The industry is moving towards refined operations, emphasizing supply chain efficiency, differentiated positioning, and global expansion [26][28] - Mixue Ice City has the largest self-built supply chain, with over 60% of its ingredients sourced internally, which helps reduce costs [28][30] - Bawang Chaji focuses on a limited product range, with 91% of its GMV coming from "original leaf fresh milk tea," allowing for precise procurement and lower inventory costs [19][24] Group 5: Expansion and Challenges - Bawang Chaji plans to open 1,000 to 1,500 new stores in 2025 to address its current store count deficit [25][30] - The new tea beverage market is seeing a saturation point, with a growth rate slowing to 6.4% in 2024, indicating a shift to competition based on existing market share [26][28] - International expansion is becoming a key strategy, with brands like Mixue Ice City and Bawang Chaji actively pursuing markets in Southeast Asia and Europe [30][33]