Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-01 11:01Group 1 - The upcoming non-farm payroll data for July is crucial for assessing the labor market and determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in September [1] - The market expects 104,000 new jobs in July, a decrease from 147,000 in June and below the three-month average of 150,000 [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to rise to 4.2%, slightly worse than the previous 4.1%, but still below the Fed's year-end forecast of 4.5% [1] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims fell to 221,000, down from 246,000, indicating a potential improvement in the job market [2] - The Challenger job cuts increased by 62,000 in July, up from 48,000 in June, signaling rising layoffs [2] - The labor market sentiment index dropped to a cycle low of 11.3 percentage points, significantly below the 2019 average of 33.2 percentage points [2] Group 3 - Bank of America predicts a 60,000 increase in jobs for July, primarily due to a decline in government employment [3] - Morgan Stanley forecasts a total of 100,000 new jobs, with the private sector contributing all of this growth [3] - Analysts note that tariff policies may negatively impact manufacturing employment in the coming months [3] Group 4 - Bank of America suggests that the impact of immigration restrictions may not be fully realized in July, but they expect negative effects on industries like leisure and hospitality [4] Group 5 - The Federal Reserve aims for a balanced labor market rather than a sharp decline, with market reactions dependent on the strength of the employment data [6] - High employment numbers could delay interest rate cuts, while weak data may raise recession concerns [6] - Market reactions to employment data are categorized by ranges of job growth, with specific predicted impacts on the S&P 500 index [6]