Group 1 - The upcoming non-farm payroll data is a critical anchor for market sentiment, especially after three days of adjustments in the US stock market [1] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Meta, and Google have reported earnings that exceed expectations, showcasing strong growth driven by AI, which aims to reignite market risk appetite [1] - The Federal Reserve maintains a high interest rate stance despite pressure from the Trump administration, indicating a strong vigilance against inflation risks [1] Group 2 - The core PCE price index released on Thursday exceeded market expectations, reinforcing the rationale for the Fed to hold off on interest rate cuts [3] - The market anticipates that the non-farm payroll will show an increase of around 180,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%, reflecting a marginal cooling in the job market [3] - If the non-farm data significantly exceeds expectations, it could solidify the Fed's path of maintaining high rates, putting pressure on interest-sensitive assets like tech stocks and gold [3] Group 3 - The non-farm data represents a delicate balance between monetary policy direction and political economic considerations, with potential risks if the data falls into a "neither strong nor weak" category [4] - The market's response to the non-farm data will provide insights into how long the Fed can maintain its current patience regarding monetary policy [4] - The outcome of the non-farm data will likely set a new trajectory for the upcoming market trends [4]
万腾外汇：非农数据能否终结多空僵局？美联储的耐心还有多长？
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-01 11:32