美联储理事沃勒发文：我为何投下反对票？

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller voted against the recent interest rate cut, advocating for a 25 basis point reduction instead, arguing that tariffs only cause a one-time price level increase without leading to sustained inflation [1][2]. Economic Data Analysis - Current economic data suggests that monetary policy should be close to neutral rather than restrictive, with a GDP growth rate of 1.2% in the first half of the year and expectations of continued low growth through 2025 [2][3]. - The unemployment rate stands at 4.1%, near the long-term estimate by the committee, and overall inflation, excluding temporary tariff effects, is slightly above the 2% target [2][3]. Labor Market Considerations - Despite a seemingly stable labor market, private sector job growth is nearly stagnant, indicating increased downside risks in the labor market [3]. - The potential for inflation is close to target, and the risks of inflation rising are limited, suggesting that action should not wait for a clear deterioration in the labor market [3]. Policy Recommendations - Waller suggests that if tariffs do not significantly impact inflation, the committee can continue to lower rates at a moderate pace, while also being prepared to pause if inflation or employment exceeds expectations [4]. - There is no justification for maintaining current interest rates, as it poses risks of a sudden downturn in the labor market [4].