美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼反对美联储不降息 均提及劳动力市场出现疲软

Core Views - The Federal Reserve officials Waller and Bowman expressed concerns that hesitation in interest rate cuts could unnecessarily harm the labor market [2][5] - Both officials voted against the decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, advocating for a 25 basis point cut [2][9] - Their views contrast with Powell and other policymakers who believe the labor market remains robust, supporting a patient approach to interest rate adjustments [2][4] Labor Market Insights - Signs of weakness are emerging in the labor market, with Waller noting an increase in downside risks due to stagnation in private sector job growth [2][11] - Bowman highlighted a decline in labor market vitality, indicating growing signs of fragility [2][5] - Non-farm employment continues to grow moderately, but the unemployment rate remains low, suggesting a mixed outlook for job stability [4][10] Inflation and Economic Growth - Inflation is approaching the 2% target, particularly when excluding the temporary impacts of tariffs, with core PCE inflation showing significant progress [4][5] - Economic growth has slowed, with private domestic final purchases growing at a rate much lower than the strong levels seen in 2024, reflecting weak consumer spending and declining residential investment [4][5] - The overall economic conditions suggest that monetary policy should shift towards a neutral stance to mitigate risks of further economic slowdown and labor market damage [3][6] Policy Recommendations - The current restrictive monetary policy should be adjusted towards neutrality to support the labor market and achieve dual objectives of full employment and price stability [6][12] - Delaying action could lead to a deterioration in the labor market and further economic slowdown, making it crucial to act proactively [6][12] - The Fed should consider a gradual approach to interest rate cuts, allowing for data observation while avoiding unnecessary risks to the labor market [12]