一周热榜精选：非农彻底点燃降息预期！鲍威尔被批顽固白痴

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced a significant rise this week, attributed to trade agreements with the EU, better-than-expected GDP data, and a hawkish interpretation of Fed Chair Powell's press conference, leading to a reduction in interest rate cut expectations for the year [1] - As of Thursday, the dollar index had risen for six consecutive trading days, surpassing the 100 mark and reaching a new high since late May. However, Friday's weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll data caused the dollar to drop back below 99, falling over 100 points [1] - Spot gold faced pressure due to the strong dollar, with prices dropping below $3,270, marking the largest single-day decline in over a month. Following the non-farm data release, gold rebounded, rising $40 to above $3,340 per ounce [1] - Non-US currencies struggled against the strong dollar, with the British pound, Australian dollar, and euro all recording consecutive declines [1] - International oil prices are expected to rise for the first time in three weeks, driven by Trump's ultimatum regarding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and signs of easing global trade tensions [1] Investment Bank Insights - UBS suggests that the current strength of the dollar may be temporary. Deutsche Bank analysts indicate that if the Fed leans towards rate cuts in the short term, the dollar could decline [4] - Barclays believes the risk leans towards the Fed delaying rate cuts, while Societe Generale points out that four key upcoming data releases will reshape the Fed's rate cut expectations for September [4] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the Fed may restart its easing cycle in the fall, while Jefferies notes that the Fed intends to cut rates but requires a slowdown in employment data to proceed [4] Economic Data Highlights - The US GDP for Q2 showed an annualized growth rate of 3%, rebounding significantly from 0.5% in Q1, primarily due to a 5 percentage point contribution from net exports [9] - However, consumer spending grew only 1.4%, the slowest since the pandemic, and business investment showed a marked slowdown [9] - The core and overall PCE price indices for June exceeded market expectations, driven by rising commodity prices, indicating that some import tariffs are being passed on to consumers [11] - The July non-farm payroll report showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, the smallest gain since October of the previous year, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [11] Trade and Tariff Developments - Trump announced new tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on several countries, with specific rates based on trade balances with the US [13] - A trade agreement was reached between the US and the EU, with the EU agreeing to invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion in US energy products [14] - Following the agreement, France criticized the deal as unbalanced, while Germany viewed it as a means to avoid escalating trade wars [14] Corporate Developments - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio has completed his exit from the company, with the Brunei sovereign wealth fund becoming a significant new shareholder [24] - Nvidia responded to concerns regarding security vulnerabilities in its chips, asserting that there are no backdoors or remote access capabilities in its products [21]