行情差不多到头！埋伏下一波券商方法在这

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that broker ETFs are suitable for grid trading strategies but not for long-term holding, highlighting their performance metrics and market behavior over time [1][13]. Group 1: Broker ETF Performance - The broker ETF was established on September 28, 2017, with a cumulative return of 61.62% and an absolute return of 108.94%, while the corresponding ETF fund increased by only 10.46% during the same period [1]. - Historical data shows that during the 2015 bull market, the broker index outperformed the CSI 300 index significantly in the first wave of the market, with gains of 114% compared to 44% [7]. - In the second wave of the 2015 bull market, the broker index lagged behind the CSI 300 index, gaining only 27% versus 59%, despite the broker index reaching historical highs [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Broker Performance - The performance of brokers is closely tied to market trading volume; increased trading volume leads to higher commissions and improved broker performance [4]. - Short-term correlations exist between A-share market increases and trading volume, but long-term price increases depend more on company performance and economic strength rather than speculative trading [4]. - The broker index in 2021 was approximately 50% lower than its peak in 2015, despite the CSI 300 index reaching new highs, primarily due to trading volume not exceeding 2015 levels [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Strategy - The potential for further increases in trading volume will determine the future performance of brokers; if trading volume can expand, brokers may have opportunities for new highs [8]. - The article suggests that brokers are not suitable for long-term holding, as evidenced by the broker ETF's modest increase of only 10.46% since its inception [13]. - The average annualized price movement of the broker ETF is around 4%, indicating a relatively stable price range over the past decade [15].