7月非农“爆冷”！特朗普怒喷鲍威尔，9月降息“驶入倒计时”？

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July showed a significant slowdown, with only 73,000 jobs added, well below the expected 110,000 [1][3] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.2%, matching expectations, and reflecting a minor increase from the previous month's 4.1% [1][3] - The healthcare and social assistance sectors added 73,300 jobs, but federal government layoffs negatively impacted overall growth, with a reduction of 12,000 federal jobs in July [6] Group 2 - Average hourly earnings for private sector non-farm employees increased by $0.12, or 0.3%, reaching $36.44, with a year-over-year growth of 3.9% [7] - The average workweek for all private non-farm employees slightly increased by 0.1 hours to 34.3 hours in July [7] - The employment data for May and June was significantly revised downwards, with May's job additions adjusted from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000, indicating a total downward revision of 258,000 jobs over the two months [8] Group 3 - The recent employment data suggests a weakening hiring momentum, which may lead the Federal Open Market Committee to adopt a more dovish stance, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut in September [8] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September surged to 73.6% following the employment report, while the probability of maintaining the current rate dropped to 26.4% [9][10] - Some Federal Reserve officials, however, maintain that a single report should not alter the overall assessment of the labor market, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive review of data [11]