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蔚来-SW(09866.HK):期待L90交付超预期;看好公司新经营周期
Ge Long Hui·2025-08-01 18:52

Company Overview - On July 31, NIO's sub-brand, Ladao Auto, held a product launch for the Ladao L90, which offers configurations for six and seven seats, with a starting price of 265,800 yuan for the vehicle and 179,800 yuan for the BaaS battery rental option [1] - The L90's pricing exceeds market expectations, and its product capabilities are considered industry-leading [1] Product Delivery and Market Strategy - The company plans to officially start deliveries on August 1, addressing previous market concerns regarding the ramp-up of new product deliveries [1] - Based on pre-sale order numbers, the company is expected to deliver over 10,000 units in September, capitalizing on the initial buzz surrounding the new product launch [1] Product Highlights - The L90 features significant competitive advantages in space, energy consumption, and safety [1] - It offers a spacious interior, which is a core demand for large three-row SUV users, achieved through 36 technical innovations in lightweight design and high integration [1] - Safety features include 45 active and intelligent safety assistance functions, with a focus on reducing accidents and enhancing user experience [1] Future Product Pipeline - The company plans to launch the Ladao L80 and a new ES8 in the second half of the year, with expectations for monthly deliveries to gradually exceed 30,000 to 40,000 units in Q3 and Q4 [2] - The new models are priced competitively, and shared technology from the NIO NT3.0 platform is expected to drive cost reductions [2] Financial Outlook - The company anticipates achieving a gross margin of over 15% for the NIO brand and 10% for the Ladao brand, supported by overall sales growth [2] - In Q2, the company incurred one-time expenses due to personnel adjustments, but these are expected to diminish in Q3 and Q4, leading to a decrease in quarterly Non-GAAP R&D expenses to around 2 billion yuan [2] - The company aims for profitability and positive free cash flow in Q4 2025 [2] Smart Driving Developments - The company continues to invest in smart driving technology, with the first version of the NIO World Model (NWM) launched on May 30 [2] - The focus remains on safety, with upgrades in four key scenarios: active safety, highway navigation, urban navigation, and smart parking [2] - The company has ensured sufficient space for updates and iterations in its smart driving technology architecture, allowing all vehicle owners to benefit from the latest advancements [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Current valuations for U.S. and Hong Kong stocks correspond to 0.8x P/S for 2025, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates maintained [3] - The company has raised target prices for Hong Kong and U.S. stocks by 10% and 9% to 45 HKD and 5.8 USD, respectively, indicating a potential upside of 29% for both markets [3]