美国就业数据引爆美债大涨，9月降息概率9成，美联储观望策略还适用吗？

Core Viewpoint - The disappointing employment report has reignited market bets on the Federal Reserve potentially lowering interest rates as early as next month, leading to a significant drop in short-term Treasury yields [1][4][8]. Employment Data - The U.S. Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls increased by only 73,000 in July, far below the expected 104,000, with prior months' data revised down by 258,000 [8]. - The average monthly job growth over the past three months has fallen to 35,000, the lowest level since the pandemic began in 2020 [8]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data, the two-year Treasury yield plummeted by 27.7 basis points to 3.674%, marking the largest single-day drop in a year [3][8]. - The ISM manufacturing PMI for July was reported at 48, indicating the fastest contraction in nine months, further contributing to the decline in Treasury yields [1]. Interest Rate Expectations - Traders have fully priced in the expectation of two rate cuts within the year, with a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut at the September meeting [4][6]. - CreditSights strategists now anticipate a 50 basis point cut in September, followed by two additional 25 basis point cuts by December, a significant shift from previous expectations of no cuts until 2026 [9]. Economic Commentary - Market analysts suggest that the Federal Reserve may be lagging behind the labor market situation, especially in light of recent tariff measures impacting inflation expectations [9]. - Some experts caution that a single employment report may not be sufficient to alter the Fed's established course, as additional economic data will be available before the next meeting [10].