非农惨淡，两年期美债收益率暴跌28基点！美联储观望策略还适用吗？

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed unexpected weakness with only 73,000 jobs added in July, significantly below the expected 104,000, and previous months' data was revised down by nearly 260,000, leading to an average of 35,000 jobs added over the past three months, the lowest since the pandemic began in 2020 [4][5][6] - Following the employment report, the two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 25 basis points to 3.71%, marking the largest single-day drop in a year, with further declines observed as the ISM manufacturing PMI for July also indicated contraction at 48 [1][4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have surged, with traders fully pricing in two rate cuts this year and a nearly 90% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [1][3] Group 2 - Analysts from CreditSights have adjusted their forecasts, now predicting a 50 basis point cut in September and two additional 25 basis point cuts by December, a significant change from their previous outlook of not expecting cuts until 2026 [5][6] - BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income suggested that the Federal Reserve should initiate a 50 basis point cut next month, arguing that even a 100 basis point cut would not negatively impact inflation levels [6][7] - Some analysts caution that a single employment report may not be sufficient to alter the Federal Reserve's established course, emphasizing the need for additional employment and inflation data before the next Fed meeting [8]